Scrap Metal Market 2025 Outlook | Investment Recovery Association

Scrap Metal Market 2025: What Investment Recovery Professionals Need to Know — and Do Now

Why 2025 Feels Like “Deer-in-the-Headlights”

If you buy or sell surplus metals, you’ve already felt this year’s whiplash. Tariffs, shaky global demand and geopolitical cross-winds have pushed stainless, copper and aluminum prices into roller-coaster territory. Stainless 300-series grades saw a brief restocking bump in May, yet overall demand remains tepid and nickel prices on the LME are flat. Copper spiked to record highs in late March on tariff fears, then plunged before clawing back on improved Chinese sentiment. Translation: expect choppy waters straight through summer and fall.

Tariffs: Risk… and the Occasional Reward

Potential upsides

• Pricier imports nudge manufacturers toward domestic scrap, lifting demand and, potentially, pricing.

• Local recycling, transport and processing jobs can get a boost.

Potential downsides

• Retaliatory duties and supply-chain kinks can squash downstream demand.

• Exporters face new paperwork, slower clearances and price caps.

• Volatility makes budget forecasting almost impossible.

Bottom line: tariffs can deliver short-term lifts, but the longer they linger, the more uncertainty they inject into every quote you write.

More Headwinds You Can’t Ignore

1. Demand swings in core verticals – Construction, auto and heavy equipment growth has cooled in China and parts of Europe, dampening scrap appetite.
2. Contamination and separation costs – Mixed or hazardous loads require eddy-current, X-ray or manual re-sorting, eroding margin.
3. Technology gaps – Smaller yards that can’t finance AI-enabled sorters lose bids to higher-purity suppliers.
4. Circular-economy pressure – OEMs are designing closed-loop systems, reducing open-market scrap demand.

The Bright Spots

• Emerging-market hunger. Southeast Asia and India continue to import U.S. scrap, partly offsetting European slowdowns.

• Sustainability dollars. Corporations chasing ESG targets prefer recycled feedstock.

• Market growth. Analysts project the recycled-metal market will jump from $75.47 billion in 2025 to $99.13 billion by 2029 (7.1 % CAGR). That’s fresh opportunity for well-positioned IR teams.

Five “Do-Right-Now” Moves for IR Teams

• Track prices daily. Set alerts with Fastmarkets, iScrap or LME dashboards; stainless and copper can move 5 % in a week.
• Marry price data to internal ERP. Overlay live metal indexes on surplus-asset lists to time disposals.
• Audit your yards. Verify they employ advanced sorting (XRF, optical, AI vision) that meets EU and OEM purity specs.
• Leverage AI forecasting. Machine-learning models digest macro data (tariffs, PMI, oil prices) and flag sell-windows sooner than human spreadsheets.
• Network aggressively. Join the Investment Recovery Association and Recycled Materials Association for peer intel and vendor vetting—especially in volatile cycles.

Get Ahead of the Curve — Join Us in Westminster

Want deeper tactics to defend (and grow) metal-recovery revenue? Meet the experts at the 2025 Investment Recovery Association Conference & Trade Show, September 21-24 in Westminster, CO. A dedicated metals-panel will walk through:

• On-site segregation best practices

• Vendor scoring and contract clauses that lock in upside

• Real-world ROI case studies from top IR programs

Register now and turn today’s volatility into tomorrow’s margin.